Cardinals Secure Game-Changing Agreement with Lance Lynn: What It Means for the Team

Prior to his stint on the IL, Lynn made 21 starts for the Cardinals this season. Over 106 1/3 innings, he posted a 4.06 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 4.46 FIP and a 20.8% strikeout rate. While Lynn showed promise during the first half of the season, his performance deteriorated sharply in July, when he struggled with a 6.27 ERA and 7.04 FIP across 18 2/3 innings in four starts.

Despite his recent struggles, Lynn’s overall numbers for this season are a significant improvement over his disastrous 2023 campaign, where he had a 5.73 ERA (77 ERA+) and a 5.53 FIP in 183 2/3 innings. Lynn’s current stats are also comparable to his 2022 season, during which he had a 3.99 ERA (99 ERA+) and a 3.82 FIP. Although he is no longer the pitcher who posted a stellar 3.26 ERA (146 ERA+) and a 3.39 FIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate from 2019 to 2021, Lynn remains a reliable option for the back of the rotation.

The Cardinals, facing a shortage of starting pitching depth heading into 2025, are keen to evaluate Lynn’s performance over the final stretch of the season. This assessment will help them decide whether to exercise their $12 million option for next year or opt for a $1 million buyout. They are also considering a similar decision regarding veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, who has posted a 4.39 ERA (97 ERA+) and a 4.26 FIP in 26 starts this season.

Additionally, the Cardinals will use the remainder of the season to assess right-hander Andre Pallante as a potential long-term rotation piece. Pallante, 25, has posted a 4.07 ERA (105 ERA+) and a 4.08 FIP this season, with a notable improvement since moving to the rotation in late May, recording a 3.81 ERA and 4.00 FIP over his last 87 1/3 innings.

Staff ace Sonny Gray and veteran Miles Mikolas are expected to remain in their rotation roles, which leaves southpaw Steven Matz as the odd man out. Matz is set to be available out of the bullpen starting tomorrow after making just one start since returning from a four-month injury layoff. Signed to a four-year, $44 million deal before the 2022 season, Matz has struggled with a 4.61 ERA (98 ERA+) despite a solid 3.98 FIP. He has been limited to 185 1/3 innings over the past three years due to injuries and bullpen moves, and he will likely serve as a back-end rotation option and long relief arm for the Cardinals in 2025, depending on the team’s needs and his performance.