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Entering opening night last fall, the Heat were coming off one of the most unusual seasons in recent memory. They barely finished above .500 during the 2022/23 regular season, posting a negative net rating (-0.5) across 82 games, then narrowly survived the play-in tournament to earn the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. From there, they knocked off the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in their first three postseason series, coming within three wins of a championship before ultimately falling to Denver.
During the subsequent 2023/24 season, Erik Spoelstra repeatedly insisted that his team wasn’t counting on a repeat of the year before and was taking the regular season seriously rather than waiting to turn it on in the postseason.
But injuries and inconsistency resulted in a pretty similar outcome. Miami won 46 games instead of 44 and outscored its opponents, but once again finished in the bottom half of the league in net rating and needed a win in its second play-in game to grab the No. 8 playoff seed.
With star Jimmy Butler sidelined with a knee injury, the Heat finished the regular season with just one victory over the top-seeded Celtics and no postseason magic this time around. On the one hand, the Heat are only one season removed from winning the East, and with Butler healthy and a better first-round opponent this spring, they might have been able to go farther this season.
However, it’s an idealized picture of their circumstances. Given that Butler is about to begin his 35th season and the team’s regular season records indicate that it has been a mediocre team the previous two seasons, it is unlikely that this team can be considered a serious title contender without making significant personnel changes.
On the one hand, the Heat are only one season removed from winning the East, and with Butler healthy and a better first-round opponent this spring, they might have been able to go farther this season. However, it’s an idealized picture of their circumstances.
Given that Butler is about to begin his 35th season and the team’s regular season records indicate that it has been a mediocre team the previous two seasons, it is unlikely that this team can be considered a serious title contender without making significant personnel changes.
I wouldn’t rule out significant summer adjustments for the Heat given what’s happened since their season ended (more on that below), but they aren’t built to completely rebuild (they haven’t lost fewer than 37 games since 2007/08).
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