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The Celtics have been heavy favorites to reach the NBA Finals all season, but few predicted that the Mavericks would emerge as their opponent. Fifth-seeded Dallas arrived here the hard way, toppling the fourth-seeded Clippers, top-seeded Thunder, and third-seeded Timberwolves in the Western Conference. Now they will face a 64-win Boston team. The Celtics, meanwhile, have a chance to win a championship without facing a top-three seed. Nevertheless, behind the dynamic backcourt of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, these Mavericks are scorching. Here are some keys to the series:
▪ Defensive Dallas The Celtics swept the season series against Dallas, 2-0, but the 138-110 thrashing on March 1 ultimately served as a milepost for the Mavericks. It was the start of a three-game losing streak that led coach Jason Kidd to reshuffle his starting lineup, reinserting defensive-minded wing Derrick Jones Jr. along with the team’s two recent trade acquisitions, center Daniel Gafford and forward P.J. Washington Jr.
The Mavericks were 23rd in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions before the changes. After that, they finished the regular season with a brilliant and league-leading defensive rating of 107.2, an almost unbelievable figure given that both Irving and Doncic have always been mediocre to below-average defenders. ▪ Pursuing Kyrie and Luka The Celtics will frequently try to force Doncic and Irving into defensive situations.
The only serious threat Minnesota had to break through the Mavericks’ perimeter defense was superstar Anthony Edwards of the Timberwolves, but the Celtics have plenty of other possibilities. And aside from taking advantage of the Mavericks’ weaknesses in that regard, the strategy ought to assist in exhausting Doncic and Irving in order to lessen at least some of their offensive potential.
If Irving and Doncic need extra rest, it would be a disaster for the Mavericks. During these playoffs, the Mavericks have averaged 118 points per 100 possessions with Irving on the court. With Irving on the bench, that figure plummets to 89.8 points. To put that grisly mark in perspective, the Pistons’ 103.9 offensive rating this year was the NBA’s worst
The Mavericks offense was 10.5 points per 100 possessions worse with Doncic on the bench during the regular season and 12.1 points per 100 possessions worse in the playoffs. So whenever the Celtics force either player to the sidelines to catch a breather, it should be a win.
▪ The Porzingis Factor
Much will be made of Irving’s return to Boston to face his former team, but this also will be a reunion of sorts for Porzingis, who spent 2½ mostly unfulfilling seasons as Doncic’s teammate in Dallas before being sent to the Wizards before the 2022 trade deadline.
The 7-foot-2-inch missed the last two series with the calf strain he suffered in the first-round series against the Heat April 28. The Celtics have gone 10-1 without Porzingis, but now they probably need him back.
Porzingis was close to returning for Game 4 of the conference finals against the Pacers, so barring a setback it seems likely that he’ll be cleared to play in Game 1 of the Finals Thursday. He could be rusty and need time to get back into game shape, so don’t expect him to play 40 minutes right away. But his presence would be massive.
Porzingis’s offensive value is obvious. The Celtics can feed him on post-ups when the offense is in a rut, and he also can pull the Mavericks’ big men to the perimeter with his 3-point shot. But he could be most valuable as a rim protector.
Gafford, Jones, and athletic rookie Dereck Lively have been menacing lob threats during these playoffs. Entering Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, the Mavericks had 48 lob dunks during this postseason while the rest of the NBA combined for 59. Porzingis has the length and skill to be a deterrent there.If Doncic or Irving gets into the paint and misses a layup, keep an eye on the Celtics’ quick counterattack offense.▪ 3-point varianceDuring the regular season, the Celtics attempted a league-high 42.5 3-pointers per game, and the Mavericks were second, averaging 39.5. With two teams that rely so heavily on the long ball, it will become more likely to see unusual swings over the small sample size of a seven-game series. The opportunity for variance probably works in the favor of the underdog Mavericks.
Clutch moments The Celtics have dominated their opponents in the postseason. Considering that they have won seven straight games and are 12-2 overall, raising concerns now would be considered nitpicking. Still, their run of blowouts had raised doubts before the Pacers series about whether they really needed to be reminded of what a tight playoff game felt like, especially in the closing seconds.
Their three victories in close games to advance to 4-0 in clutch games (defined as the score being within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime) during the playoffs provided them with a fast refresher lesson versus Indiana. The Mavericks, who are 6-3 in the postseason, have participated in a league-high nine crucial games. Doncic will without a doubt lead Dallas through its crucial late-game situations. The Celtics have demonstrated their ability to win by committee and have proved that they perform best when the late offensive comprises of more players than Isolations of Jayson Tatum.
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