Worried about Aaron Judge’s poor performance in the early going?

You probably didn’t need to be as concerned about Aaron Judge’s early-season problems if you were in a panic. However, following a 2-0 loss to the Oakland Athletics on April 22, the captain was having a terrible game.23 games, scoring 174/.308/.337, so some fans were at least a bit worried. Great hitters, however, will ultimately adjust or find their timing again if they are healthy. Judge is simply too good not to recover, and that is precisely what he has done in this particular instance.

The 2022 AL MVP was hitting.233/.365/.486 with 10 doubles, 9 home runs, a.851 OPS, and a 143 wRC+ prior to Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Even with a rough April, he is not far off the mark—his career wRC+ is 164. Judge has obviously stepped it up since April 22nd. The outfielder was outstanding from April 23 to Friday, slashing.317/.446/.700 in 75 plate appearances with a 219 wRC+. During that 17-game stretch, he hit six of his nine home runs and had a stunning 17.3% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate.

What then changed? Why had everything clicked for him suddenly? First of all, he began to feel the favour of the baseball gods once more. His season wOBA (.371) and xwOBA (.403) are clearly different, indicating that he had been a little unfortunate up to this point.

Even though the story doesn’t stop there, that is an important piece of information. It’s also critical to keep in mind that Judge’s abdominal/oblique ailment kept him out of a significant amount of spring training. He probably spent a good portion of the season getting his timing and swing adjusted, but he lost out on those crucial time and opportunity. Even though the judge attempted to brush it off, it can’t be entirely ignored.

There are situations where timing truly does matter a great deal. Judge was missing pitches that he ought to have destroyed earlier in the season. Consider this fastball from April 5th:

That was exactly in the centre. Throughout the first several weeks, there were several occasions where it was evident that his timing wasn’t quite correct. Some experts may point out that players with long levers typically require a bit more time for everything to work together, and Judge was lagging behind his colleagues after missing a few games in the middle of the spring.

But in the last few games, he made a minor adjustment that has allowed him to reach his full attacking potential. Though it looks easy, it takes practice, talent, and intent: He has been swinging the bat a little bit more.

Judge had a 42.3 percent swing percentage going into the game on Saturday. He was being a little more passive than normal from the beginning of the season until that game on April 22nd, swinging at just 40.4% of the pitches he saw. Between April 23rd and yesterday’s start of play, that percentage increased to 44.9 percent.

Even though it’s subtle, it’s more significant than it first appears. Remember that this isn’t a tiny sample; Judge is a smart hitter who will face plenty of pitches regardless. In other words, before April 23rd, he watched an astounding 445 pitches and made an offer on 180 of them. He saw 316 from the 23rd onward and swung at 142 of them. In the previous sample, that would have meant an additional 19 or 20 swings if he had offered at the same pace. That’s not nothing, for someone who might only get one or two excellent pitches to a crowd on any given night because of the opposition’s caution.

Of course, the best judge of character (pardon the pun) for each pitch is the judge’s discerning eye, and that has to be acknowledged. It’s likely that the pitch wasn’t good enough for him to really pummelled if he didn’t swing. Having said that, he’s hunting marginally more now than he was a few weeks ago, and that might be contributing to the difference. The most obvious shift in Judge’s approach has been to swing more frequently, though he has also been making more contact on pitches both inside and outside of the zone.

We were all aware that Judge would begin to contribute fairly soon, if he remained injury-free. It was inevitable in one form or another that the recent trend would occur, whether it’s attributed primarily to better timing, a somewhat more aggressive approach, or just the inevitable positive regression for a superstar. The skipper may have been hurt, and given the Yankees’ public approach to injuries, it was reasonable to assume that he was. At least Judge’s health is sufficient, and that has worked well in the past; it appears to be working well this time as well.