Blinksportsnews247The Houston Astros’ five-year, $95 million deal for Josh Hader, which was first announced by ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Friday, ought to spark some activity in the free-agent relief market. That’s precisely what appears to be happening, if Robert Stephenson’s subsequent contract with the Los Angeles Angels—which was initially reported by Jomboy Media—is any guide.
Before the Angels made their move, the Phillies were reportedly in on Stephenson, but their interest in Hader was negligible at best. There are still a ton of inferior relief alternatives available, including a few former Phils.
However, should the Sox have pursued Hader, the biggest fish in the free-agent reliever pond, with more vigor?
The question here isn’t whether Hader would have improved the Phillies bullpen’s strength and made it nearly unhittable during the postseason. You can argue over the 2023 bullpen’s position as one of the best in the league in any number of ways, such as third in fWAR, seventh in ERA, sixth in K/9, etc. With the possible exception of a brief period in 2022 when his season was bizarrely derailed by Alec Bohm and Matt Vierling, Hader has been the finest reliever in baseball for the last five years. It would be really alluring to be in a bullpen with him, José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and other players.
One prominent argument against Hader’s signing by the Phillies is that the 2023 NLCS wasn’t plagued by a weak bullpen. But it’s not totally convincing:But even while the offense is somewhat to blame for the collapse in Games 6 and 7, one might argue that the series never would have progressed that far if the bullpen had been able to hold onto a 5-2 lead in Game 4. The bullpen for the Phillies has been excellent the past two seasons, but by the time they reached the postseason, there were just a few dependable, elite alternatives left. The issue wasn’t only the offense; the bullpen was also a factor.
Thus, the criticism of Hader is not grounded in need. It is based on expenses. The Phillies would have had to forgo $1 million in international bonus pool money, second and fifth round draft picks in 2024, and a record-breaking amount of current value for a reliever had the San Diego Padres given a qualifying offer to Hader. Additionally, given the Phillies’ recent success in making the most of unseen, less expensive bullpen signings (see Hoffman, Alvarado, and even Matt Strahm), one could argue that they would be better off approaching the bullpen from a “do more with less” perspective.
However, they will need to rely heavily on things to go well. For starters, they’ll require more from Gregory Soto. To get beyond that difficult NLCS, they’ll need Kerkering—and, for the record, the bet is that he does. Despite throwing the fewest innings in MLB during the regular season last year, the bullpen will need to hope that it does not run out of gas collectively late in the postseason, as it has done the previous two seasons.
Ultimately, though, pitching is something you can never have too much of, especially in the bullpen. When Ryne Stanek of the Astros’ bullpen, with his 1.15 regular-season ERA, was the fifth option, the Phillies had to learn that lesson the hard way in the 2022 World Series.
It became too much to handle. The Phillies bullpen with Hader would have received something similar.Maybe we can do without him. If possible, we consider Hader’s waiver from the Phillies to be a smart move by director of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and company. But when the season loses steam again in October and leaks enough oil to shorten the season — even as the offense cools with it — it appears the obvious offseason move was indeed the right one all along.
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